Misinformation from the Science (-denial) Committee

	NCSE (@NCSE)
12/2/16, 1:02 PM Phil Plait on the House Science Committee's spreading misinformation about climate change: slate.com/blogs/bad_astr…

	grist (@grist)
12/2/16, 2:20 PM The Timelapse feature from @googleearth shows just how much our planet is changing  pic.twitter.com/je2QLRUEmz

Before the Flood Discussion- PT 1

Before the Flood

I watched Fisher Stevens’s Before the Flood on climate change starring Leonardo Dicaprio as the narrator. I’m going to talk about its major points, starting with the facts and frame that the film presents, and then moving on to why it is our responsibility individually to take action, why the climate movement is facing such great opposition, and what our hope for the future is.

The documentary begins with Leonardo describing a painting that hung above his crib as a child, “The Garden of Earthly Delights” by Hieronymus Bosch. It's hard to see in the picture, but you can find it online easy. As Leonardo describes his perception of the painting, the left 1st half is meant to represent paradise, perfect weather, perfect harmony. The middle section is labeled "Humankind" and shows our tendency to overpopulation and excess. The third, last section reflects the result of such excess: a decayed, burnt land that was violated and destroyed. The land as well as the humans are destroyed in the last picture. Leonardo discusses the parallelism of our world and the painting. We lie somewhere in the middle section, living in excess and destruction, able to see that we're heading for the last landscape: loss. 

One of the major aspects that seems to haunt Dicaprio is the fact that we know what we're doing. We are aware that the actions we're taking are causing serious harm to the environment and we have a pretty good estimate of what that is going to look like for us in the long run. We have the science at hand, 97% of scientists in the world agree on this science, according to NASA. Scientists should be considered the most credible humans on earth, they are the ones providing us with the warnings, yet most people tune out when the words "climate change" or "global warming" is even whispered. News casts and government officials have the audacity to name it a "hoax", even to this day. We've known about the effects of our industrialization for half a century. In the film, a clip is shown from 1958 of scientists discussing the warming of our atmosphere do to fossil fuels. Since that clip, our human population has increased by over 5 billion people. That means more electricity, more food, more power, more destruction. We've seen the danger coming a mile away and have turned away only to look back to see it's on our doorstep, tripled in size. He visits with Miami city beach Mayor, Philip Levine, who is an advocate for environmentalism. Levine talks about how Miami today experiences "sunny day flooding", where the ocean levels are rising and backflowing through the city drains. On high tide, he said you would have to use a canoe to navigate the streets. For now, the city built pumps to control the issue, and when asked how long those would be effective, Levine answers only 50 years. He says South Florida will be underwater sooner than anyone thinks. All of the "solutions" we have now of dealing with the issue are only temporary, we need a global shift towards renewable energy for anything permanent to be done. Dicaprio travels the Artic to talk to native peoples about how climate change is effecting them right now. A native man shows that the ice used to be a solid blue, deep blue and now he walks on an "ice cream ice". This is man whose way of life depends on the stability of the ice. This illuminates one of the most heartbreaking truths about climate change: the people and countries who are contributing the least to climate change are among the first to feel its wrath. The islands along the equator, the tribes of the artic north, the third world countries that do not even have access to electricity do not have the means to protect themselves from heat waves and drought and storms. Eventually, climate change will catch up to every human on earth. In the film, Dicaprio visits the island Abaiang, Kiribati. 12 years ago the island was habitable, now it is flooded and there are only a handful of people remaining. They do not have the means to relocate. This part in the film hit me like a train. 12 years. 12 years ago I was 9 years old! These effects are happening in our lifetime. Right now. We are living in a strange time, we are teetering on the edge of two options: clean energy or say goodbye to humanity. It's hard to conceptualize, that we are living so close to a crisis and it's all unfolding right before our eyes. But this is our reality, this is what's happening, whether we are on board or not. The most important aspect to remember about climate change that I think a lot of people do not understand is that the world, nature in all her glory, is going to adapt and change to fight against the root cause: us. The film shows an excellent example of this. Greenland is covered in ice, as you may know, but the ice is melting and the landscape is changing to a grey instead of white. A white landscape reflects light, a grey landscape absorbs light and acts a self-heater. So now that we have warmed the climate enough to change the ice, the landscape is re-enforcing itself and now is heating faster than ever. Another example of the irony of climate change are rainforests. Trees absorb CO2, helping purify the air around us. We cut down those rainforests, in order to manufacture, which causes more CO2 to be released, with less trees to absorb the dangerous chemical. When we burn those forests (to clear) it acts as a powerhouse, releasing massive amounts of CO2 into the atmosphere. We're destroying the ecosystems that help us restabilize the climate. As shown in the film, there are three main tropical rainforests left in the world: the Amazon, the Congo Basin, and Indonesia. The palm oil industry controls about 80% of the Indonesian rain forest, which is where Dicaprio flys out to. To clear the land for palm oil farming, they burn the forest. In 2015, the forest fires emitted more carbon daily than the entire US economy. The carbon poses a death threat to not only the peoples of the area but also to the wildlife. The Indonesian rain forest is actually the last place on earth where tigers, elephants, rhinos, and orangutan live in the same place. We're losing the diversity of our planet. The greatest lesson to learn about the palm oil industry is that is continues because people keep buying it. The decisions we make in our grocery store affect the lives of animals and human all the way across the world. There is palm oil in a lot of retail items in the grocery store, as well as cosmetics. Some of the brands mentioned that take advantage of the destructive palm oil industry are: Kraft, KraftHeinz, Tyson, Walgreen's, Sara Lee, Nissin (ramen noodles), PEPSICO, Doritos, Quaker. These are everyday items that are causing a devastating chain of events that will eventually snake back to hit us in the face. Another ironic example of human activity on the climate is the mass production of beef. The statistics blew my mind. So here's how it works. According to Gidon Eshel, Ph.D., beef is one of the most inefficient use of resources on the planet. In the U.S., 47% of land is used for food production. Of that, 70% of that land is used just to feed the cattle. Only 1% is used for fruits, vegetables, etc. Cows produce methane (the irony, we mass produce cows, they mass produce a harmful substance), which is far more impactful than CO2. Every molecule of methane is equal to 23 molecules of CO2. about 10-12% of US emissions is due to beef production. A 1/2 pound hamburger= 24 hours of air conditioning use. Gidon believes the minimum amount you can do for the climate is change your diet. He even concedes that switching to chicken or pig would be more environmentally conscious than beef. We have to get over ourselves and our steaks, our steakhouses, our love for cheeseburgers. These actions we're taking; deforestation, burning, tar sands, beef production; it's deplorable enough that we are killing the home on which we live, but we're killing ourselves. These actions have a sinister boomerang effect that we're only just beginning to see.

Above is a picture of the Indonesia rain forest, and you can see where the palm oil industry has taken over. 

On the next installment, I'll go over the responsibility we bear as humans, the opposition the climate movement faces, and what our hope for the future is.

2nd Installment: Global Climate Change Crisis: Facts, Causes, Effects, and Vital Signs.

Dear Guys!

This s my 2nd installment. As I said in the 1st one, I really would like to talk about the climate change crisis, and discuss it from different aspects. For instance, first; how do we know that climate change is a real crisis? And what facts are prof that crisis? Second, what are the causes of climate change and global warming? Third, what are the consequences of climate change? Fourth, scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming. Lastly, vital signs. 

I've started this class and we have started to look and search about climate change and how it's a real crisis that we have to face it. In my 1st installment, I discussed what facts are prof that crisis and what are the causes of climate change and global warming? In my 2nd installment, I would like to continue and discuss the consequences and the effects of climate change. And also discussing some scientific consensus that proves that earth's climate is warming. Finally, I am going to give some suggestions on how we could work together to protect our planet from this real crisis.

First, the consequences and the effects of climate change.

Global climate change has already had observable effects on the environment. Glaciers have shrunk, ice on rivers and lakes is breaking up earlier, plant and animal ranges have shifted and trees are flowering sooner. Effects that scientists had predicted in the past would result from global climate change are now occurring: loss of sea ice, accelerated sea level rise and longer, more intense heat waves.

Taken as a whole, the range of published evidence indicates that the net damage costs of climate change are likely to be significant and to increase over time.

- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Scientists have high confidence that global temperatures will continue to rise for decades to come, largely due to greenhouse gases produced by human activities. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which includes more than 1,300 scientists from the United States and other countries, forecasts a temperature rise of 2.5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit over the next century.

The IPCC predicts that increases in global mean temperature of less than 1.8 to 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit (1 to 3 degrees Celsius) above 1990 levels will produce beneficial impacts in some regions and harmful ones in others. Net annual costs will increase over time as global temperatures increase.

Now let us discuss some Future Effects:

1- Global climate is projected to continue to change over this century and beyond. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades depends primarily on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally, and how sensitive the Earth’s climate is to those emissions.

2-Temperatures will continue to rise:

Because human-induced warming is superimposed on a naturally varying climate, the temperature rise has not been, and will not be, uniform or smooth across the country or over time.

A visualization of global temperature changes since 1880 based on NASA GISS data.

3-Frost-free season (and growing season) will lengthen

The length of the frost-free season (and the corresponding growing season) has been increasing nationally since the 1980s, with the largest increases occurring in the western United States, affecting ecosystems and agriculture. Across the United States, the growing season is projected to continue to lengthen.

In a future in which heat-trapping gas emissions continue to grow, increases of a month or more in the lengths of the frost-free and growing seasons are projected across most of the U.S. by the end of the century, with slightly smaller increases in the northern Great Plains. The largest increases in the frost-free season (more than eight weeks) are projected for the western U.S., particularly in high elevation and coastal areas. The increases will be considerably smaller if heat-trapping gas emissions are reduced.  

4-Changes in precipitation patterns:

Average U.S. precipitation has increased since 1900, but some areas have had increases greater than the national average, and some areas have had decreases. More winter and spring precipitation is projected for the northern United States, and less for the Southwest, over this century.

Projections of future climate over the U.S. suggest that the recent trend towards increased heavy precipitation events will continue. This trend is projected to occur even in regions where total precipitation is expected to decrease, such as the Southwest.

5-Sea level will rise 1-4 feet by 2100:

Global sea level has risen by about 8 inches since reliable record keeping began in 1880. It is projected to rise another 1 to 4 feet by 2100. This is the result of added water from melting land ice and the expansion of seawater as it warms.

In the next several decades, storm surges and high tides could combine with sea level rise and land subsidence to further increase flooding in many of these regions. Sea level rise will not stop in 2100 because the oceans take a very long time to respond to warmer conditions at the Earth’s surface. Ocean waters will therefore continue to warm and sea level will continue to rise for many centuries at rates equal to or higher than that of the current century.  

Last point in this section is U.S. regional effects:

Northeast. Heat waves, heavy downpours and sea level rise pose growing challenges to many aspects of life in the Northeast. Infrastructure, agriculture, fisheries and ecosystems will be increasingly compromised. Many states and cities are beginning to incorporate climate change into their planning.

Northwest. Changes in the timing of streamflow reduce water supplies for competing demands. Sea level rise, erosion, inundation, risks to infrastructure and increasing ocean acidity pose major threats. Increasing wildfire, insect outbreaks and tree diseases are causing widespread tree die-off.

Southeast. Sea level rise poses widespread and continuing threats to the region’s economy and environment. Extreme heat will affect health, energy, agriculture and more. Decreased water availability will have economic and environmental impacts.

Midwest. Extreme heat, heavy downpours and flooding will affect infrastructure, health, agriculture, forestry, transportation, air and water quality, and more. Climate change will also exacerbate a range of risks to the Great Lakes.

Southwest. Increased heat, drought and insect outbreaks, all linked to climate change, have increased wildfires. Declining water supplies, reduced agricultural yields, health impacts in cities due to heat, and flooding and erosion in coastal areas are additional concerns.

Secondly: Scientific consensus: Earth's climate is warming

Statement on climate change from different scientific associations:

1-American Association for the Advancement of Science

"The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society." (2006)

2-American Chemical Society

"Comprehensive scientific assessments of our current and potential future climates clearly indicate that climate change is real, largely attributable to emissions from human activities, and potentially a very serious problem." (2004)

3-American Geophysical Union

"Human‐induced climate change requires urgent action. Humanity is the major influence on the global climate change observed over the past 50 years. Rapid societal responses can significantly lessen negative outcomes." (Adopted 2003, revised and reaffirmed 2007, 2012, 2013)

4-American Physical Society

"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now." (2007)

5-The Geological Society of America

"The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s." (2006; revised 2010)

Finally, some suggestions on how we could work together to protect our planet from this real crisis.

1-Forego Fossil Fuels—The first challenge is eliminating the burning of coal, oil and, eventually, natural gas. This is perhaps the most daunting challenge as denizens of richer nations literally eat, wear, work, play and even sleep on the products made from such fossilized sunshine. And citizens of developing nations want and arguably deserve the same comforts, which are largely thanks to the energy stored in such fuels.

2-Infrastructure Upgrade—Buildings worldwide contribute around one third of all greenhouse gas emissions (43 percent in the U.S. alone), even though investing in thicker insulation and other cost-effective, temperature-regulating steps can save money in the long run. Electric grids are at capacity or overloaded, but power demands continue to rise. And bad roads can lower the fuel economy of even the most efficient vehicle. Investing in new infrastructure, or radically upgrading existing highways and transmission lines, would help cut greenhouse gas emissions and drive economic growth in developing countries.

3-Move Closer to Work—Transportation is the second leading source of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. (burning a single gallon of gasoline produces 20 pounds of CO2). But it doesn't have to be that way.

One way to dramatically curtail transportation fuel needs is to move closer to work, use mass transit, or switch to walking, cycling or some other mode of transport that does not require anything other than human energy. There is also the option of working from home and telecommuting several days a week.

4-Be Efficient—A potentially simpler and even bigger impact can be made by doing more with less. Citizens of many developed countries are profligate wasters of energy, whether by speeding in a gas-guzzling sport-utility vehicle or leaving the lights on when not in a room.

Good driving—and good car maintenance, such as making sure tires are properly inflated—can limit the amount of greenhouse gas emissions from a vehicle and, perhaps more importantly, lower the frequency of payment at the pump.

5-Stop Cutting Down Trees—Every year, 33 million acres of forests are cut down. Timber harvesting in the tropics alone contributes 1.5 billion metric tons of carbon to the atmosphere. That represents 20 percent of human-made greenhouse gas emissions and a source that could be avoided relatively easily.

Improved agricultural practices along with paper recycling and forest management—balancing the amount of wood taken out with the amount of new trees growing—could quickly eliminate this significant chunk of emissions.

References:

IPCC 2007, Summary for Policymakers, in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p. 17.

USGCRP 2014, Third Climate Assessment.

J. Cook, et al, "Consensus on consensus: a synthesis of consensus estimates on human-caused global warming," Environmental Research Letters Vol. 11 No. 4, (13 April 2016)

J. Cook, et al, "Quantifying the consensus on anthropogenic global warming in the scientific literature," Environmental Research Letters Vol. 8 No. 2, (15 May 2013)

P. T. Doran & M. K. Zimmerman, "Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change," Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union Vol. 90 Issue 3 (2009), 22

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/10-solutions-for-climate-change/