The Collapse of Western Civilization: A View from the Future Final Blog Post (Draft)

Where we left off, in this optimistically pessimistic thought experiment in the form of a novel, our "historian" was mostly talking about the events that are in our past (before 2014) that impact our future (the past for the book; this is all very confusing to talk about).  Now, we finally get to the point where the historian details some of the specific repercussions of our actions during the Period of the Prenumbra.  Things are going to get a little bit crazy, so get ready.

If you have no idea what I am talking about, or you just want a refresher, here is a link to my midterm blog post, so you can get caught up. https://envirojpo.blogspot.com/2018/11/belated-midterm-report-on-collapse-of.html

With that out of the way, I will give a very short summary of the rest of the book: Our impact is catastrophic.  That is the best way to put it.  From drastically rising temperatures, to collapsing governments, to a revitalization of communism, this thought experiment takes a sharp left turn; from Boringly-Detailing-The-Past Avenue to The-Shit-Hits-The-Fan Lane. 

Before we get into the details, here are those images in the book that I talked about last time.  They're pretty neat, but depressing...

As you can see with this one, the Netherlands is almost completely underwater by 2300.  If you can't see it, on every map, the key shows the lighter grey portions indicating sea level by year 2300, and the darker grey portions indicating sea level in year 2000.  

Here we have Bangladesh, which is almost entirely swallowed by the sea by the year 2300.  Pretty crazy stuff.

This one, as well as the next one, hits pretty close to home.  New York and New Jersey look to be largely covered by 2300.  Only a few monuments remain.

Here is Florida.  The last of the images shows Miami completely gone, and only about 50% of the state would remain.

Now it is time for some serious details on how exactly (possibly) the collapse of western civilization as we know it will occur.

- "In 2001, the IPCC had predicted that atmospheric CO2 would double by 2050.  In fact, that benchmark was met by 2042.  Scientists had expected a mean global warming of 2 to 3 degrees Celsius; the actual figure was 3.9 degrees." (24)

- By 2040, heat waves are the norm.

- One child policies are "widely implemented"

- Social order begins to break down in 2050, leading to governments being overthrown in Africa, Asia, and Europe.

- Forests are destroyed by surging insect populations.

- In the U.S, as some of the world's most productive farmlands are destroyed by climate change, the government declares martial law in order to prevent riots and looting.

- Soon after, the U.S and Canada begin talks of combining to create the United States of North America, so as to share resources and relocate populations, apparently ignoring Mexico.

- The European Union announces similar plans, relocating citizens to Scandinavia and the United Kingdom.

- IAICEP (International Aerosol Injection Climate Engineering Project) begins to inject submicrometer-size sulfate into the stratosphere at a large rate every year, hoping to reduce the temperature globally, little by little.  This initially progresses wonderfully, but does not work due to foreseen, but discounted side effects.

- IAICEP is forced to stop its project due to an abrupt increase in global temperatures.

- "The ultimate blow for Western civilization came in a development that, like so many others, had long been discussed but rarely fully assimilated as a realistic threat: the collapse of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet."

- Some who realize the damage cannot be stopped seek to at least chronicle it.

- This is what becomes known as The Great Collapse.

- The Mass Migration that follows causes what is to be known as The Second Black Death.  As so many people migrate across the world, a new strain of bacteria emerges in Europe, spreading to Asia and North America having similar effects to the first Black Death.

- Some scientists say 60 to 70 percent of species are driven to extinction.

- "Suffice it to say that total losses, social, cultural, economic, and demographic, were greater than any in recorded human history. 

- Around 2090, a scientist develops a way to restore the atmosphere and recover from environmental catastrophe with a new form of fungus.

- Survivors in northern regions of Europe, Asia, and North America, as well as high altitude areas of South America are able to regroup and rebuild. 

- "The human populations of Australia and Africa, of course, were wiped out.

- Communism makes a massive resurgence in the form of "neo-communism" in the Second People's Republic of China.

Quiz:

1. By what year are heat waves the norm?

2. What is one of the things specifically that destroys many forests?

3. Which two countries get together to create the United States of North America?

4. Name one of the continents whose human population was completely wiped out.

5.What was the name given to the catastrophic collapse of the West Antarctica Ice Sheet?

Discussion Questions:

1. Knowing the nature of history, and the way stories are told, and myths are formed, how much of this could you see being just hearsay in the form of fact, or just biased opinion?  Think from the perspective of someone at the time the book is based in.

2. Do you think it is plausible that the world could actually recover from all of this?