GEOENGINEERING

 

Geoengineering refers to the large-scale manipulation of Earth’s climate, typically to combat the effects of climate change. Geoengineering is a complex and controversial topic, but it is a process that we are already engaged with on a massive scale.

Each second you spend reading this, humans emit over 1,100 metric tons of CO2 and by doing so participate in the largest scale geoengineering experiment ever performed. Though modern geoengineering is most often thought of as a way to mitigate climate change, accidental geoengineering can also be thought of as the cause of climate change. 

History

The idea of controlling our environment has roots in human thought that go back perhaps to the dawn of our species. Mankind has always been an ecosystem engineer, often unintentionally. When our prehuman ancestors arrived in the Americas around 30,000 years ago, our hunting prowess caused a megafauna extinction that rippled profoundly through american ecosystems. Our distant ancestors started forest fires to flush out prey and fertilize soil. We dug canals, diverted rivers, and filled lakes in the name of agriculture. More recently, poor farmland management has lead to events like the dust bowl and the draining of aquifers. Mankind have always been ecosystem engineers, but it is only with the advent of the industrial revolution that we have had the opportunity to purposely affect long term, global geoengineering projects.  

Modern thoughts on Geoengineering date back to the mid 1800’s, when celebrated American meteorologist James Pollard Espy suggested burning down Appalachian forests to prompt rainfall for agriculture. While his plan never came to fruition, it marks the modernization of humanity’s attempts to control the earth for agricultural benefit.

            Throughout the 20^th century, nation-state actors such as the US, China, and Soviet Union researched and tested various geoengineering methods for agricultural, economic, and strategic use. It was not until the early 2000’s that geoengineering began to see serious testing as a remedy for manmade climate change, and in recent years this research has increased to an all- time high.

This website gives a glimpse into some of the geoengineering projects happening around the globe right now.

Categorization

We can broadly classify geoengineering into two basic types, Carbon Capture geoengineering, and Solar energy displacement geoengineering.

Methods of Carbon Capture geoengineering rely on various technologies to capture atmospheric carbon and sequester it in a form that does not contribute to climate change. Carbon capture projects include Olivine beaches, Direct Capture technologies, Reforestation, and other methods. The Center for Climate and Energy Solutions has more excellent information on carbon capture methods. 

Solar energy displacement geoengineering methods all involve cooling the earth by changing the amount of solar radiation that warms it. This is accomplished by either changing the albedo of the earth’s surface, or blocking sunlight before it has a chance to get to the earth. Several proposed methods of solar energy displacement include Cloud seeding to increase rainfall and albedo in drought stricken areas, Stratospheric Aerosol Injection to increase the earth's albedo in the stratosphere, and Orbital Reflection. 

Futurism

If humanity can overcome our current existential issues, geoengineering technologies open the door for terraforming projects on other planets. Given enough time and a high enough level of technology, humans might be able to precisely tailor the environment of this or other planets using advanced solutions like enormous mirror arrays focusing light to heat up Mars, or heat shields orbiting the sun to strategically cool down earth or other planets. We might use solar panels orbiting in a dyson swarm to both cool the earth and provide an almost limitless source of energy. Your imagination really is the only limit, provided our species proves capable of overcoming the existential threats that we now face.

            The Three Body Problem

The Three Body Problem was first theorized by Isaac Newton in 1687 in his groundbreaking work Principia Mathematica. In essence, this problem states that the behavior of a system of three gravitationally connected bodies is chaotic in nature and impossible to predict. Geoengineering is similar in that the more geoengineering solutions we attempt, the higher the number of unforeseen interactions between these solutions and the environment around us. Humans have never attempted a reparative geoengineering project as massive as what has been put forth in Ministry for the Future. We will almost certainly experience unforeseen side effects, and due to the global scale of modern geoengineering, those side effects will almost certainly be global in scale as well. The question is, can we afford not to?

 

Is our hand forced?

As mankind’s burden on the environment becomes greater, we will reach a tipping point. An invisible, unknowable critical mass. Most likely, it will be a day marked by nothing. We will not even realize that the scales have tipped until it is too late. The loss of diversity triggered by the Anthropocene Extinction combined with habitat loss, desertification, ocean acidification, and climate change will trigger a trophic cascade that will fundamentally upend the way humans live on this planet. This point may be in 5, 10, 50, or 100 years. If we play our cards right, we might be able to delay it indefinitely.

This tipping point may have already passed.

Current science points to a tipping point that is coming soon, and if we do not institute large changes in climate policy soon, we may be forced to employ a less ideal geoengineering solution out of desperation. Opponents of geoengineering often point to risks posed by unforeseen externalities as a reason not to pursue any particular  geoengineering technology  any further, but I believe the real question is whether those externalities outweigh both the known consequences and the unknown externalities of climate change. 

This is a decision that everyone has to make at a personal level. When push comes to shove and people are dying in heat waves and droughts, I believe countries will act in their own best interests as shown in the beginning of Ministry for the Future. The more developed our knowledge of geoengineering technologies is, the better we will be able to anticipate and mitigate any unforeseen effects.