Beyond CatastropheA New Climate Reality Is Coming Into ViewBy David Wallace-Wells
Photographs by Devin
Oktar Yalkin
Captions by Charley Locke
Oct. 26, 2022
You can never really see
the future, only imagine it, then try to make sense of the new world when it
arrives.
Just a few years ago,
climate projections for this century looked quite apocalyptic, with most
scientists warning that continuing “business as usual” would bring the world
four or even five degrees Celsius of warming — a change disruptive enough to
call forth not only predictions of food crises and heat stress, state conflict
and economic strife, but, from some corners, warnings of civilizational
collapse and even a sort of human endgame. (Perhaps you’ve had nightmares about
each of these and seen premonitions of them in your newsfeed.)
Now, with the world
already 1.2 degrees hotter, scientists believe that warming this century will
most likely fall between two or three degrees. (A United Nations report released this week ahead of the COP27
climate conference in Sharm el Sheikh, Egypt, confirmed that range.) A little
lower is possible, with much more concerted action; a little higher, too, with
slower action and bad climate luck. Those numbers may sound abstract, but what
they suggest is this: Thanks to astonishing declines in the price of
renewables, a truly global political mobilization, a clearer picture of the
energy future and serious policy focus from world leaders, we have cut expected
warming almost in half in just five years.
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